Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
