How Donald Trump Achieved a Gaza Strip Breakthrough Which Escaped Joe Biden
At first, the Israeli air strike on the Hamas militant negotiating team in Doha seemed like another intensification that drove the hope of a ceasefire further away.
The attack on 9 September breached the territorial integrity of an US partner and risked widening the conflict into a broader regional conflict.
Diplomacy appeared to be collapsing.
However, it turned out to be a pivotal event that culminated in a deal, announced by Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
This is a goal that Trump, and President Joe Biden previously, had sought for almost 24 months.
It is just the initial phase towards a lasting resolution, and the details of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and full Israeli withdrawal remain to be negotiated.
But if this deal stands, it could be Donald Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that eluded Biden and his administration.
The president's unique style and crucial relationships with the Israeli government and the Arab world seem to have played a role in this breakthrough.
However, as with most foreign policy wins, there were also factors at play beyond the influence of both leaders.
A Close Relationship That Eluded Biden
In public, Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
The president likes to say that Israel has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has described him as the country's "most supportive friend in the White House". And these positive statements have been backed up by deeds.
Throughout his first presidential term, the president moved the American diplomatic mission in the country from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and abandoned a long-held US position that Jewish communities in the occupied territories are illegal, the view under international law.
After the Israeli military began its air strikes against Iran in the summer, Trump directed US bombers to strike the Iran's atomic sites with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
Those visible shows of support may have given the president the leeway to apply more pressure on Israel behind the scenes. According to reports, the president's negotiator, Steve Witkoff, browbeat Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into accepting a temporary ceasefire in return for the freeing of some hostages.
When Israeli forces attacked against Syrian forces in the summer, including hitting a place of worship, the US president pressured his counterpart to change course.
The leader displayed a degree of will and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is virtually unprecedented, according to Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "There is no example of an American president literally telling an Israeli leader that you're going to have to comply or else."
Biden's connection with the Israeli administration was always more strained.
His administration's "close embrace approach" held that the US had to support the nation publicly in order to enable it to moderate the country's military actions behind closed doors.
Beneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of support for the state, as well as deep disagreements within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took risked dividing his own political backing, while Trump's solid Republican base gave him more room to act.
Ultimately, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had less importance than the reality that, during Biden's presidency, Israel was not ready to make peace.
Eight months into Trump's second term, with Iran weakened, Hezbollah to its immediate north significantly reduced and the coastal strip devastated, all its major strategy objectives had been accomplished.
Business History Assisted Secure Gulf's Backing
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which killed a local national but not the intended targets, prompted the president to deliver an final demand to the prime minister. Hostilities had to end.
The US leader had given Israel a relatively free hand in the territory. The president lent US armed support to Israel's campaign in Iran. But an attack on Qatar soil was a separate issue entirely, pushing him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to end the war.
A number of administration figures have told media outlets that this was a decisive moment which motivated the president to apply maximum pressure to finalize an agreement.
This US president's strong connections with the Gulf states are well documented. Trump has business dealings with the emirate and the UAE. He began each of his administrations with state visits to the kingdom. This year, Trump also visited in Doha and Abu Dhabi.
His Abraham Accords, which established ties between the Jewish state and a number of Arab nations, including the Emirates, was the most significant foreign policy success of his initial presidency.
The time devoted in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula earlier this year helped change his thinking, says an expert of the a policy institute. The US president did not visit Israel on this Middle East trip but visited the UAE, the kingdom and Qatar where the leader heard consistent appeals to put a stop to the conflict.
Less than a month after that Israeli strike on Doha, Trump sat close as Netanyahu personally phoned the Qatari leadership to express regret. And later that day, the Israeli leader gave approval on the president's 20-point peace plan for the territory - one that also had the backing of key Muslim nations in the region.
Assuming the president's alliance with his counterpart provided him the ability to influence Israel to strike a deal, his past with Arab rulers may have ensured their backing, and helped them convince Hamas to commit to the deal.
"One of the things that clearly happened was that President Trump gained influence with the Israelis, and indirectly with Hamas," notes Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"That made a difference. The capacity to achieve this on his timing, and avoid yielding to the desires of the warring sides has been a challenge that many earlier administrations have faced, and he appears to do relatively successfully."
The reality that Trump is far better liked in Israel than Netanyahu himself was an advantage that he used to his advantage, the expert continues.
Now Israel has committed to releasing more than 1,000 detainees held in Israeli prisons and has agreed to a limited pullback from the strip.
The group will free all the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased, captured in the initial October 7 assault, which caused the loss of over 1,200 Israeli citizens.
A conclusion to the war, which has resulted in the destruction of the territory and the deaths of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal