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At first, Trump gave the impression to adopt a resolute approach on Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "significant repercussions" during the summer if Russia's president carried on hindering truce negotiations, Trump eventually enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, through his newly presented detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, he has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", large portions of the plan actually compromise that same autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business background, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, like ceding Putin a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a charred swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to destroy it so it stops serves as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the presently split oblasts of these areas, the plan would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this surrender would render Ukraine's military defenses dangerously weakened.

This region is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate renewed hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative imposes no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and prohibited." As if to underscore this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the plan has Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized land in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we believe Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external security guarantees. Although the initiative threatens a "immediate joint defense action" in case the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the details include vague to troubling. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from deploying forces on the nation's land, thereby preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Russia from restoring his reduced forces, rearming, and reinvading.

World Response

Another side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "serious, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. But different from a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Western powers, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's attacks, something they have {not